Career-Connected Education Outcomes Research Review: Part 1, Employment and Earnings

How to read the evidence

Career-connected programs reliably raise the chance a student is employed after high school, and the best-designed studies find lasting earnings gains for young men in full, field-aligned programs. Part 1 covers employment and earnings. Parts 2 to 4 cover high school completion and credentials, college access and completion, and the program and policy features that change results. Scope is United States K-12 programs.

Every finding carries a tag in the form [Author(s) Year; design; sample/setting]. Where a study appears in the S4IS evidence appendix (corrected Oct. 3, 2026), the tag is copied from it. Where a study is not in the appendix, the tag was built from the source read for this review, and the review status section lists it.

Design classes. You will see three classes, from strongest to weakest causal warrant.

Lottery studies. The S4IS appendix tags lottery-based admission studies as quasi-experimental (lottery-based), and this review follows that convention. They compare applicants only, so they tell you about students who chose to apply.

Matching is not randomization. Propensity score matching and regression with controls handle observed differences only. Read those results as associations.

The anchor synthesis. The CTE Research Network meta-analysis found that CTE participation raised employment after high school, but found no significant earnings effect [Lindsay, Hughes, Dougherty, Reese & Joshi 2024 (AIR, CTE Research Network); systematic review and meta-analysis of 28 secondary CTE studies meeting WWC standards (RCT and quasi-experimental); U.S. secondary students].

The earnings result rests on two studies. The authors note that “several influential studies that show impacts from CTE participation on future earnings are not included in these results because the study reports lacked the necessary information for calculating effect sizes.” Read it as an earnings effect the pooled data cannot yet measure, not as proof of no effect.

Winchester. The Shihadeh Innovation Center in Winchester, Virginia, is not cited as evidence anywhere in this review. No published outcome study of it exists.

This review is research, not legal advice.

Key findings

CTE raises employment after high school. Earnings gains are clearest in the two strongest studies, are concentrated among young men, and depend on depth and field.

1. Employment rises; the pooled earnings effect is not yet measurable. The meta-analysis found a significant employment effect (g = 0.182, 10 studies) and a nonsignificant earnings effect (g = 0.164, 2 studies) (Lindsay et al. 2024).
2. The strongest studies find large, lasting gains for men. The MDRC Career Academies trial found 11% higher earnings over eight years, and 17% for young men. Connecticut’s technical high schools raised male quarterly earnings by 32%, and the gains persisted past the usual college-going years. Neither found earnings effects for young women.
3. Men in Connecticut moved into lasting career fields. Admission shifted men into higher-paying industries aligned with their program, and men who did not start there moved into those industries over time (Brunner, Dougherty & Ross 2022).
4. Depth beats exposure. Each additional year of upper-level vocational coursework carries about a 2% wage premium; introductory courses carry none. This study is descriptive/correlational, not quasi-experimental (Kreisman & Stange 2017).
5. Field matters. In North Carolina and Massachusetts wage-record data, manufacturing, transportation and logistics, construction and STEM concentrators earn the most; agriculture earns less. Health science pays off mainly after an associate degree.
6. Most field and state evidence is descriptive. Only career academies (RCT) and stand-alone technical high schools (quasi-experimental, regression discontinuity) reach the top tiers of causal warrant for earnings.

Long-term studies

Two rigorous studies follow students about eight years and find lasting male earnings gains; state wage-record studies point the same way but are descriptive.

Career academies: the MDRC randomized trial

• About 1,400 students in nine urban high schools, roughly 85% Hispanic or African American, were randomly assigned to a career academy or a control group and followed for eight years after expected graduation.
• Academy students earned 11% more per year ($2,088), or $16,704 over eight years, in 2006 dollars. Young men earned $3,731 (17%) more per year, through higher wages, more hours and steadier employment. There was no significant effect for young women.
• More than 90% of both groups earned a diploma or GED, and about half of both completed a postsecondary credential, so the gains came without a college tradeoff. Academy students were also somewhat more likely to work in jobs related to what they studied.
• [Kemple with Willner 2008 (MDRC); RCT (applicants randomly assigned to academy or control); 9 urban high schools, 8-year follow-up]

Connecticut technical high schools

• Male students admitted at the score cutoff were 10 pp more likely to graduate (control mean about 80%), spent about half a semester less in college, and had 32% higher quarterly earnings. The gains “persist past traditional college going years.” Industry fixed effects explain less than one-third of the earnings gain. There was little evidence of effects for female students.
• [Brunner, Dougherty & Ross 2023 (Review of Economics and Statistics 105(4); NBER w28790, 2021); quasi-experimental (regression discontinuity at technical high school admission cutoffs); Connecticut Technical High School System applicants, more than 57,000 applicants 2006-2013, P20 WIN administrative data]
• A companion paper found that admission shifted men into higher-paying industries aligned with their program, and that admitted men who did not start in those industries “are more likely to transition into higher paying industries over time.” [Brunner, Dougherty & Ross 2022 (NBER w30408); quasi-experimental (regression discontinuity at admission cutoffs); Connecticut Technical Education and Career System applicants]

State wage-record studies

• Massachusetts. Concentrators earned about $1,792 more in the first year after high school and $3,359 more by year 7. Among students who never attended college, the gap was $6,053 by year 7. Concentrators were 8.4 pp more likely to avoid poverty and 7.8 pp less likely to be neither working nor in school at year 7. Concentrators in CTE-dedicated schools saw a substantially larger earnings advantage than those in comprehensive high schools. [Ecton & Dougherty 2023 (Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis 45(1)); descriptive/correlational (regression with student demographic, 8th-grade attendance and 8th-grade test score controls, on course-taking records linked to UI wages and National Student Clearinghouse data); Massachusetts SLDS, first-time 9th graders (251,437 students, 2009 to 2011 cohorts in the working paper)]
• Arkansas. In the year after high school, concentrators were 0.9 pp more likely to be employed and earned about $45 more per quarter than similar non-concentrators. Male concentrators showed wage gains; female concentrators did not. [Dougherty 2016 (Thomas B. Fordham Institute); quasi-experimental (instrumental variables using within-school variation in course offerings, plus coarsened exact matching, alongside OLS with school and cohort fixed effects); three Arkansas cohorts entering 9th grade 2008 to 2010, more than 100,000 students] Confirm with the report which specification produced the employment and wage figures. If they come from the OLS models, treat them as descriptive.
• North Carolina, 10 years out. About 32,000 Class of 2014 concentrators: 71% employed at 10 years, median earnings $40,342. [NC Department of Commerce LEAD 2024 (“CTE by the Numbers”); descriptive/correlational; NC Class of 2014 concentrators linked to NC wage records] There is no comparison group. Confirm the figures with NC Commerce (LEAD or NC TOWER) before using them.
• North Carolina, students with disabilities. Concentrators with disabilities had higher employment, wages and postsecondary enrollment than non-concentrator peers with disabilities. [NC Department of Commerce LEAD, year not confirmed (“What Works in Workforce?”); design not confirmed; NC Common Follow-up System administrative data] Confirm the year, design and sample size with NC Commerce before using it.

Results by program type

Stand-alone technical schools and career academies carry the strongest earnings evidence; P-TECH has no earnings results yet; dual enrollment evidence is mostly descriptive and shows earnings arriving later.

Maryland CTE completers

Completers earned $2,102 more per year six years after graduation, while shifting slightly from four-year to two-year college. [Witzen 2019 (Maryland Longitudinal Data System Center); quasi-experimental (propensity score matching, with an instrumental-variables check using distance to CTE centers); Maryland public high school graduates of 2009-10 and 2010-11] The author notes that matching handles observed differences only.

P-TECH 9-14

At seven years, students offered a P-TECH seat were 5 pp more likely to have completed an associate degree (13% vs. 8%; among young men, 13% vs. 3%). The seven-year result is preliminary: it covers only part of the sample (Arnold Ventures puts it at 16%) and did not quite reach statistical significance by Arnold Ventures’ reading. Employment and earnings are not yet measured, and cost-effectiveness was inconclusive. The 2024 meta-analysis did not include this report. [Rosen, Alterman, Treskon et al. 2023 (MDRC, P-TECH 9-14 Pathways to Success); quasi-experimental (lottery-based admission); 3,161 applicants to the first seven New York City P-TECH 9-14 schools, 86% Black or Hispanic] The design is the New York City high school admissions lottery, not a regression discontinuity.

Dual enrollment

• Maryland. Dual enrollment was associated with higher two- and four-year enrollment, degree completion and earnings six years out, with stronger associations for Black and FARMS-eligible students. [Henneberger, Witzen & Preston 2022 (Emerging Adulthood); descriptive/correlational (propensity score matching); Maryland statewide administrative data] The dollar figure that circulated with this study (about $2,100) could not be traced to it and is not used here.
• Texas. Dual credit participants earned less in the first years after high school (15% less in year 1, 11% less in year 3). By about year 6 they earned 4% to 9% more per year, and the gap held through year 12. Gains were largest for White students and smaller or not significant for African American, Hispanic, English learner and lower-performing students. [Dhaliwal, Jamilah, Griffin, Lu, Mahan, Miller & Kosiewicz 2025 (EdWorkingPaper 25-1137; AERA Open 2026); descriptive/correlational (propensity score weighting with regression); 20,858 graduates of the 2011 class in one Texas metropolitan area] This replaces the “+6% over ten years, five cohorts” claim, which could not be traced.

Whole-school career-immersion models

No longitudinal employment or earnings data exist for universal whole-school models such as Winchester’s. This is the central evidence gap for the series.

Results by field of study

Trades, manufacturing and transportation pay well without further schooling; health science pays well mainly after a college credential; the gender gap in earnings effects tracks which fields students choose.

• Highest and lowest earners. In North Carolina’s 10-year data, median earnings were $49,653 for manufacturing concentrators, $48,598 for transportation and logistics, $47,630 for STEM and $38,667 for agriculture (NC Commerce LEAD 2024, above; confirm before using). In Massachusetts, the premiums were strongest in construction, in transportation, manufacturing and technology, and in health care (Ecton & Dougherty 2023, above).
• Coursework fields. Wage gains from upper-level coursework were concentrated in transportation and industry (construction, mechanics, production), business and management, and health care. [Kreisman & Stange 2017 (NBER w23851; published in Education Finance and Policy 15(1)); descriptive/correlational (regression with rich controls for ability and background within a curriculum-choice framework); NLSY97 national sample]
• Health science. Health science completers who go straight to work earn less than other completers; the advantage appears after an associate degree or higher. [Kentucky Legislative Research Commission, Research Report 464, year not confirmed; descriptive/correlational; Kentucky CTE pathway completers linked to wage records] Confirm the report year before using it. In California community colleges, health CTE students who earned a credential raised their earnings 51% above their own pre-program earnings, with larger returns for associate degrees (63%) than long-term certificates (39%). [Bohn, McConville & Gibson 2016 (Public Policy Institute of California); descriptive/correlational (individual earnings trajectories before and after the credential, compared with students who entered but did not finish); California community college health CTE students] This is a postsecondary study; use it for the health pathway’s college link, not as a secondary CTE effect.
• Public safety. Long-term earnings evidence for secondary police, fire and EMS pathways is thin. Pension and per-incident pay are poorly captured in wage records.

The gender pattern

Nearly every rigorous study finds larger earnings effects for men. Women concentrate more in health care and education, which route through college and show smaller direct earnings effects; men concentrate more in construction and transportation, which lead straight to work. In Connecticut, industry earnings premiums were “similar and sometimes larger for female students in traditionally male dominated industries like manufacturing and construction” (Brunner, Dougherty & Ross 2022). The gap appears to come from which fields students enter, not from lower returns to women within a field.

Earnings and return on investment

The size of the earnings gain depends on design and follow-up length; read each row for its design before comparing.

Labor-market context

Good jobs without a bachelor’s degree exist at scale, which supports aligning programs to real career fields.

• In 2012, there were 29 million “middle jobs” paying $35,000 or more on average without a bachelor’s degree; more than 11 million paid $50,000 or more, and 4 million paid $75,000 or more. [Georgetown CEW 2012 (Career and Technical Education: Five Ways That Pay Along the Way to the B.A.); descriptive/correlational; national labor-market data]
• By 2031, middle-skills workers are projected to have 16.4 million good jobs. CEW defines a good job as paying at least $43,000 for workers aged 25 to 44, with a median of $82,000 across good jobs. [Georgetown CEW 2024 (The Future of Good Jobs: Projections through 2031); descriptive/correlational (labor-market projections); national data]

These are labor-market projections, not program effects.

Lasting careers versus short-term jobs

The best evidence that CTE leads to lasting careers, not job churn, comes from Connecticut and the Career Academies trial; most state data cannot tell staying in a field from simply being employed.

• Connecticut. Admitted men moved into higher-paying industries aligned with their program, and those who started elsewhere moved into those industries over time (Brunner, Dougherty & Ross 2022).
• Career Academies. Eight-year earnings gains came partly from steadier employment (Kemple with Willner 2008).
• Massachusetts. At seven years, concentrators were more likely to avoid poverty and less likely to be neither working nor in school (Ecton & Dougherty 2023).
• The limit. Most state studies report employment and earnings at a point in time, not whether a person stayed in the same field across years.

Moderators

Depth is the strongest moderator with earnings evidence; other design features have little direct earnings evidence. Part 4 covers moderators in full.

• Depth and duration. Upper-level coursework carries about a 2% wage premium per year; introductory courses carry none (Kreisman & Stange 2017). In Massachusetts, concentrators, not course samplers, drive the earnings advantage (Ecton & Dougherty 2023).
• Program type and design. The meta-analysis found “insufficient evidence to distinguish between the impacts of different CTE types,” and no moderator (program type, gender, disability) reached significance, mainly because there are too few studies (Lindsay et al. 2024).

Implications for program design and evidence gaps

The evidence supports deep, field-aligned programs now, and better outcome data before anyone claims earnings gains for newer models.

What the evidence supports now

1. Full sequences over sampling. Fund and schedule complete multi-year sequences with upper-level courses. Introductory exposure alone shows no wage return.
2. Fields with local demand and strong returns. Manufacturing, the trades, transportation and logistics, IT and health care show the strongest earnings, but match capacity to local demand. For health science, plan the college link from the start.
3. Dedicated structures where you can. Stand-alone technical high schools and career academies carry the strongest earnings evidence, and Massachusetts CTE-dedicated schools outperform comprehensive-school CTE.
4. College eligibility protected. The Career Academies gains came with no loss in diplomas or postsecondary credentials. Keep academic requirements intact so students keep both routes open.

Data to build

1. Wage-record links. Only a few states can link K-12, postsecondary and wage records well. Add field-level retention, not just point-in-time employment.
2. The gender gap. Track who enters which fields. Connecticut suggests recruitment into fields, not lower returns, drives the gap.

Before claiming results for whole-school models

No published outcome study exists for any universal whole-school model, including Winchester. Commission a rigorous evaluation (regression discontinuity, lottery or matched comparison) before you claim earnings benefits. Today the case for these models rests on design and legal feasibility, not outcomes.

What would change these conclusions

• Rigorous earnings evidence on whole-school career-immersion models.
• Field-specific retention data.
• Earnings data for cohorts that started after Perkins V (2018).
• A meta-analysis update with enough earnings studies to estimate the effect precisely.

Caveats

• Most causal evidence predates Perkins V and current program designs.
• Earnings effects are larger and clearer for men; women’s effects are often null or routed through college.
• All positive evidence comes from opt-in, applicant or lottery settings, which tells you about students who chose CTE.

Review status and sources

Status: Part 1 revised and verified Oct. 3, 2026, from the RAW Part 1 draft, against the corrected S4IS evidence appendix, primary reports, journal abstracts and official summaries. Research only; not legal advice. Last checked Oct. 3, 2026.

Corrections to the RAW Part 1 draft

Checked and confirmed: Lindsay et al. 2024 (g = 0.182, 10 studies; g = 0.164, 2 studies; April 2024 revision); Kemple with Willner 2008 figures; Connecticut 32% and the companion industry-choice findings; Massachusetts year 1, year 7, non-college, poverty and disengagement figures (working paper); PPIC 51%, 63% and 39%; CEW 29 million, 11 million and 4 million middle jobs and 16.4 million good jobs by 2031.

Open questions

Sources

• Lindsay et al. 2024, CTE Research Network systematic review (ERIC ED674303)
• Kemple with Willner 2008, MDRC Career Academies long-term impacts
• Brunner, Dougherty & Ross 2023, REStat abstract
• Brunner, Dougherty & Ross 2022, industry choice (NBER w30408, IDEAS record)
• Ecton & Dougherty 2021 working paper (ERIC ED616805)
• Dougherty 2016, Fordham Arkansas report (hosted copy)
• Witzen 2019, Maryland CTE report
• Rosen et al. 2023, MDRC P-TECH 9-14
• Arnold Ventures review of P-TECH
• Henneberger, Witzen & Preston 2022, Emerging Adulthood
• Dhaliwal et al. 2025, EdWorkingPaper 25-1137
• FutureEd summary of Dhaliwal et al.
• Kreisman & Stange, NBER w23851
• Bohn, McConville & Gibson 2016, PPIC Career Technical Education in Health
• Georgetown CEW 2012, Five Ways That Pay
• Georgetown CEW 2024, The Future of Good Jobs: Projections through 2031
• Georgetown CEW 2024 press release